Latest poll: ActiVote, 4 days ago · 28 days until the election

House election 2006

Held on 2006-11-07. The result below is the official outcome; underneath it, where we hold the polls, is how close each pollster’s final poll came.

Result

Party Share (%)
Democratic Party 52.3%
Republican Party 44.3%

How the final polls compared

Each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before this election, and how far it was from the result. Only parties the pollster reported are counted.

Pollster Final poll Days before Parties scored Difference
Gallup 2006-11-04 3 2 0.1 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 54.3% 54.1% +0.1 percentage points
Republican Party 45.7% 45.9% -0.1 percentage points
ABC News/Washington Post Poll 2006-11-03 4 2 1.0 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 53.1% 54.1% -1.0 percentage points
Republican Party 46.9% 45.9% +1.0 percentage points
Pew Research Center 2006-11-03 4 2 1.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 52.2% 54.1% -1.9 percentage points
Republican Party 47.8% 45.9% +1.9 percentage points
Zogby Analytics 2006-10-22 16 2 3.0 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 57.1% 54.1% +3.0 percentage points
Republican Party 42.9% 45.9% -3.0 percentage points
Opinion Dynamics 2006-11-04 3 2 3.5 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 57.6% 54.1% +3.5 percentage points
Republican Party 42.4% 45.9% -3.5 percentage points
Abt Associates 2006-11-02 5 2 3.8 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 57.9% 54.1% +3.8 percentage points
Republican Party 42.1% 45.9% -3.8 percentage points
Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies 2006-10-29 9 2 4.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 58.4% 54.1% +4.3 percentage points
Republican Party 41.6% 45.9% -4.3 percentage points
Princeton Survey Research Assoc. 2006-11-02 5 2 4.6 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 58.7% 54.1% +4.6 percentage points
Republican Party 41.3% 45.9% -4.6 percentage points
Harris Insights 2006-10-22 16 2 4.6 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 58.8% 54.1% +4.6 percentage points
Republican Party 41.3% 45.9% -4.6 percentage points
Knowledge Networks 2006-10-10 28 2 5.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 60.0% 54.1% +5.9 percentage points
Republican Party 40.0% 45.9% -5.9 percentage points
Ipsos 2006-10-22 16 2 6.1 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 60.2% 54.1% +6.1 percentage points
Republican Party 39.8% 45.9% -6.1 percentage points
Big Village 2006-11-04 3 2 6.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 60.4% 54.1% +6.3 percentage points
Republican Party 39.6% 45.9% -6.3 percentage points
CBS News/New York Times Poll 2006-10-29 9 2 6.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 60.5% 54.1% +6.3 percentage points
Republican Party 39.5% 45.9% -6.3 percentage points
FTI Consulting 2006-10-21 17 2 6.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 60.5% 54.1% +6.3 percentage points
Republican Party 39.5% 45.9% -6.3 percentage points
RT Strategies 2006-10-28 10 2 9.4 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 63.5% 54.1% +9.4 percentage points
Republican Party 36.5% 45.9% -9.4 percentage points

How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error. For the generic congressional ballot, polls and results are both compared as two-party shares: each party’s share of the combined Democratic and Republican total. Undecided and third-party respondents therefore do not count as polling error, and the result figures in these comparisons are two-party shares too, not the raw popular vote.