Latest poll: ActiVote, 4 days ago · 28 days until the election

House election 2004

Held on 2004-11-02. The result below is the official outcome; underneath it, where we hold the polls, is how close each pollster’s final poll came.

Result

Party Share (%)
Republican Party 49.4%
Democratic Party 46.8%

How the final polls compared

Each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before this election, and how far it was from the result. Only parties the pollster reported are counted.

Pollster Final poll Days before Parties scored Difference
Lake Research/Tarrance Group 2004-10-31 2 2 0.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 48.4% 48.6% -0.3 percentage points
Republican Party 51.6% 51.4% +0.3 percentage points
Princeton Survey Research Assoc. 2004-10-28 5 2 1.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 47.3% 48.6% -1.3 percentage points
Republican Party 52.7% 51.4% +1.3 percentage points
Gallup 2004-10-30 3 2 1.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 50.5% 48.6% +1.9 percentage points
Republican Party 49.5% 51.4% -1.9 percentage points
Ipsos 2004-10-19 14 2 1.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 50.5% 48.6% +1.9 percentage points
Republican Party 49.5% 51.4% -1.9 percentage points
Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies 2004-10-30 3 2 1.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 50.6% 48.6% +1.9 percentage points
Republican Party 49.4% 51.4% -1.9 percentage points
Rasmussen Reports 2004-10-31 2 2 2.7 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 51.4% 48.6% +2.7 percentage points
Republican Party 48.6% 51.4% -2.7 percentage points
Knowledge Networks 2004-10-15 18 2 3.6 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 52.3% 48.6% +3.6 percentage points
Republican Party 47.7% 51.4% -3.6 percentage points
CBS News/New York Times Poll 2004-10-14 19 2 4.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 53.6% 48.6% +4.9 percentage points
Republican Party 46.4% 51.4% -4.9 percentage points
YouGov 2004-10-19 14 2 6.0 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 54.7% 48.6% +6.0 percentage points
Republican Party 45.3% 51.4% -6.0 percentage points

How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error. For the generic congressional ballot, polls and results are both compared as two-party shares: each party’s share of the combined Democratic and Republican total. Undecided and third-party respondents therefore do not count as polling error, and the result figures in these comparisons are two-party shares too, not the raw popular vote.