House election 2004

Held on 2004-11-02. The result below is the official outcome; underneath it, where we hold the polls, is how close each pollster’s final poll came.

Result

Party	Share (%)
Republican Party	49.4%
Democratic Party	46.8%

How the final polls compared

Each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before this election, and how far it was from the result. Only parties the pollster reported are counted.

Pollster

Final poll

Days before

Parties scored

Difference

Princeton Survey Research Assoc.

2004-10-28

1.6 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Democratic Party	44.0%	46.8%	-2.8 percentage points
Republican Party	49.0%	49.4%	-0.4 percentage points

Gallup

2004-10-30

1.8 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Republican Party	47.0%	49.4%	-2.4 percentage points
Democratic Party	48.0%	46.8%	+1.2 percentage points

Ipsos

2004-10-19

1.8 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Republican Party	46.0%	49.4%	-3.4 percentage points
Democratic Party	47.0%	46.8%	+0.2 percentage points

Lake Research/Tarrance Group

2004-10-31

2.6 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Democratic Party	44.0%	46.8%	-2.8 percentage points
Republican Party	47.0%	49.4%	-2.4 percentage points

Rasmussen Reports

2004-10-31

3.7 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Republican Party	43.2%	49.4%	-6.2 percentage points
Democratic Party	45.6%	46.8%	-1.2 percentage points

Knowledge Networks

2004-10-15

4.1 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Republican Party	42.0%	49.4%	-7.4 percentage points
Democratic Party	46.0%	46.8%	-0.8 percentage points

Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies

2004-10-30

4.6 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Republican Party	43.0%	49.4%	-6.4 percentage points
Democratic Party	44.0%	46.8%	-2.8 percentage points

YouGov

2004-10-19

5.3 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Republican Party	39.0%	49.4%	-10.4 percentage points
Democratic Party	47.0%	46.8%	+0.2 percentage points

CBS News/New York Times Poll

2004-10-14

6.1 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Republican Party	39.0%	49.4%	-10.4 percentage points
Democratic Party	45.0%	46.8%	-1.8 percentage points

How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.