Polls from Opinion Dynamics
Opinion Dynamics published polls from 1998 onwards, 17 in total; the last was on October 27, 2010. The next election is House election 2026 on November 3, 2026, in 2 days.
Parties
| Pollster | Share (%) | Date |
|---|---|---|
| REP | 50.0% | 2010-10-27 |
| DEM | 37.0% | 2010-10-27 |
Coalitions
No polls available yet.
Accuracy at past elections
Average error 3.2 percentage points across 6 elections.
Systematic over- and understatement, per party
Mean signed difference between this pollster’s final poll and the result. A positive figure means the party was stated higher than it finished.
| Party | Mean difference | Elections |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | -0.7 percentage points | 6 |
| Republican Party | +0.7 percentage points | 6 |
Per election
| Election | Final poll | Days before | Parties scored | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| House election 2010 | 2010-10-27 | 6 | 2 | 4.0 percentage points |
| House election 2008 | 2008-10-08 | 27 | 2 | 2.5 percentage points |
| House election 2006 | 2006-11-04 | 3 | 2 | 3.5 percentage points |
| House election 2002 | 2002-10-22 | 14 | 2 | 1.9 percentage points |
| House election 2000 | 2000-11-01 | 6 | 2 | 2.0 percentage points |
| House election 1998 | 1998-10-28 | 6 | 2 | 5.2 percentage points |
How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error. For the generic congressional ballot, polls and results are both compared as two-party shares: each party’s share of the combined Democratic and Republican total. Undecided and third-party respondents therefore do not count as polling error, and the result figures in these comparisons are two-party shares too, not the raw popular vote.
Every polling firm side by side: the full accuracy comparison