House election 1998

Held on 1998-11-03. The result below is the official outcome; underneath it, where we hold the polls, is how close each pollster’s final poll came.

Result

Party	Share (%)
Republican Party	48.4%
Democratic Party	47.3%

How the final polls compared

Each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before this election, and how far it was from the result. Only parties the pollster reported are counted.

Pollster

Final poll

Days before

Parties scored

Difference

Yankelovich Partners

1998-10-14

0.6 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Democratic Party	50.0%	49.4%	+0.6 percentage points
Republican Party	50.0%	50.6%	-0.6 percentage points

CBS News/New York Times Poll

1998-10-27

1.0 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Democratic Party	48.5%	49.4%	-1.0 percentage points
Republican Party	51.5%	50.6%	+1.0 percentage points

CBS News Poll

1998-10-31

1.1 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Democratic Party	50.5%	49.4%	+1.1 percentage points
Republican Party	49.5%	50.6%	-1.1 percentage points

Pew Research Center

1998-10-30

1.7 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Democratic Party	51.1%	49.4%	+1.7 percentage points
Republican Party	48.9%	50.6%	-1.7 percentage points

Wirthlin Worldwide

1998-10-18

1.8 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Democratic Party	47.7%	49.4%	-1.8 percentage points
Republican Party	52.3%	50.6%	+1.8 percentage points

American Viewpoint

1998-10-11

1.8 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Democratic Party	51.2%	49.4%	+1.8 percentage points
Republican Party	48.8%	50.6%	-1.8 percentage points

ABC News/Washington Post Poll

1998-10-31

2.2 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Democratic Party	51.6%	49.4%	+2.2 percentage points
Republican Party	48.4%	50.6%	-2.2 percentage points

Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies

1998-10-26

2.4 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Democratic Party	51.8%	49.4%	+2.4 percentage points
Republican Party	48.2%	50.6%	-2.4 percentage points

Hill Research Consultants

1998-10-15

2.5 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Democratic Party	51.9%	49.4%	+2.5 percentage points
Republican Party	48.1%	50.6%	-2.5 percentage points

Zogby Analytics

1998-10-13

2.6 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Democratic Party	52.0%	49.4%	+2.6 percentage points
Republican Party	48.0%	50.6%	-2.6 percentage points

SSRS

1998-10-23

3.6 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Democratic Party	53.0%	49.4%	+3.6 percentage points
Republican Party	47.0%	50.6%	-3.6 percentage points

Princeton Survey Research Assoc.

1998-10-08

3.9 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Democratic Party	45.6%	49.4%	-3.9 percentage points
Republican Party	54.4%	50.6%	+3.9 percentage points

Opinion Dynamics

1998-10-28

5.2 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Democratic Party	44.2%	49.4%	-5.2 percentage points
Republican Party	55.8%	50.6%	+5.2 percentage points

Gallup

1998-11-02

5.9 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Democratic Party	55.3%	49.4%	+5.9 percentage points
Republican Party	44.7%	50.6%	-5.9 percentage points

How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error. For the generic congressional ballot, polls and results are both compared as two-party shares: each party’s share of the combined Democratic and Republican total. Undecided and third-party respondents therefore do not count as polling error, and the result figures in these comparisons are two-party shares too, not the raw popular vote.