Polls from Lake Research/Tarrance Group
Lake Research/Tarrance Group has been polling since 2000 and has published 39 polls so far; the latest was on 10/10/2016.
Parties
| Pollster | Share (%) | Date |
|---|---|---|
| DEM | 47.0% | 2016-10-10 |
| REP | 42.0% | 2016-10-10 |
Coalitions
No polls available yet.
Accuracy at past elections
Average error 3.5 percentage points across 6 elections.
Systematic over- and understatement, per party
Mean signed difference between this pollster’s final poll and the result. A positive figure means the party was stated higher than it finished.
| Party | Mean difference | Elections |
|---|---|---|
| Republican Party | -3.7 percentage points | 6 |
| Democratic Party | -3.4 percentage points | 6 |
Per election
| Election | Final poll | Days before | Parties scored | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| House election 2016 | 2016-10-10 | 29 | 2 | 3.3 percentage points |
| House election 2012 | 2012-10-31 | 6 | 2 | 2.3 percentage points |
| House election 2010 | 2010-10-19 | 14 | 2 | 3.8 percentage points |
| House election 2008 | 2008-10-26 | 9 | 2 | 4.9 percentage points |
| House election 2004 | 2004-10-31 | 2 | 2 | 2.6 percentage points |
| House election 2000 | 2000-11-05 | 2 | 2 | 4.4 percentage points |
How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.