House election 2016

Held on 2016-11-08. The result below is the official outcome; underneath it, where we hold the polls, is how close each pollster’s final poll came.

Result

Party	Share (%)
Republican Party	48.3%
Democratic Party	47.3%

How the final polls compared

Each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before this election, and how far it was from the result. Only parties the pollster reported are counted.

Pollster

Final poll

Days before

Parties scored

Difference

Marist College

2016-11-02

1.0 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Republican Party	47.0%	48.3%	-1.3 percentage points
Democratic Party	48.0%	47.3%	+0.7 percentage points

ABC News/Washington Post Poll

2016-10-23

1.3 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Republican Party	46.0%	48.3%	-2.3 percentage points
Democratic Party	47.0%	47.3%	-0.3 percentage points

Selzer & Co.

2016-11-05

1.3 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Democratic Party	45.0%	47.3%	-2.3 percentage points
Republican Party	48.0%	48.3%	-0.3 percentage points

Big Village

2016-10-22

2.0 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Democratic Party	50.0%	47.3%	+2.7 percentage points
Republican Party	47.0%	48.3%	-1.3 percentage points

CBS News/New York Times Poll

2016-10-30

2.0 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Republican Party	46.0%	48.3%	-2.3 percentage points
Democratic Party	49.0%	47.3%	+1.7 percentage points

Fox News Poll

2016-11-05

2.3 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Democratic Party	45.0%	47.3%	-2.3 percentage points
Republican Party	46.0%	48.3%	-2.3 percentage points

Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies

2016-11-04

2.3 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Republican Party	44.0%	48.3%	-4.3 percentage points
Democratic Party	47.0%	47.3%	-0.3 percentage points

RKM Research and Communications

2016-11-03

2.3 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Democratic Party	44.7%	47.3%	-2.6 percentage points
Republican Party	46.3%	48.3%	-2.0 percentage points

SurveyMonkey

2016-11-03

3.0 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Republican Party	43.0%	48.3%	-5.3 percentage points
Democratic Party	48.0%	47.3%	+0.7 percentage points

Lake Research/Tarrance Group

2016-10-10

3.3 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Republican Party	42.0%	48.3%	-6.3 percentage points
Democratic Party	47.0%	47.3%	-0.3 percentage points

CBS News Poll

2016-10-14

4.3 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Republican Party	41.0%	48.3%	-7.3 percentage points
Democratic Party	46.0%	47.3%	-1.3 percentage points

GfK Group

2016-10-22

4.3 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Republican Party	41.0%	48.3%	-7.3 percentage points
Democratic Party	46.0%	47.3%	-1.3 percentage points

Morning Consult

2016-10-29

4.3 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Republican Party	43.0%	48.3%	-5.3 percentage points
Democratic Party	44.0%	47.3%	-3.3 percentage points

YouGov

2016-11-06

4.3 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Republican Party	42.0%	48.3%	-6.3 percentage points
Democratic Party	45.0%	47.3%	-2.3 percentage points

Public Religion Research Institute

2016-10-14

6.5 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Republican Party	40.0%	48.3%	-8.3 percentage points
Democratic Party	52.0%	47.3%	+4.7 percentage points

Ipsos

2016-11-05

10.6 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Republican Party	32.7%	48.3%	-15.6 percentage points
Democratic Party	41.8%	47.3%	-5.5 percentage points

How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.