Latest poll: YouGov, 4 days ago · 52 days until the election

Presidential election 2020

Held on 2020-11-03. The result below is the official outcome; underneath it, where we hold the polls, is how close each pollster’s final poll came.

Result

Party Share (%)
Joe Biden 51.3%
Donald Trump 46.9%
Jo Jorgensen 1.2%

How the final polls compared

Each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before this election, and how far it was from the result. Only parties the pollster reported are counted.

Pollster Final poll Days before Parties scored Difference
Swayable 2020-11-01 2 3 0.8 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Donald Trump 46.0% 46.9% -0.9 percentage points
Jo Jorgensen 2.0% 1.2% +0.8 percentage points
Joe Biden 52.0% 51.3% +0.7 percentage points
TIPP Insights 2020-11-02 1 3 1.0 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Joe Biden 50.0% 51.3% -1.3 percentage points
Donald Trump 46.0% 46.9% -0.9 percentage points
Jo Jorgensen 2.0% 1.2% +0.8 percentage points
RMG Research 2020-10-31 3 3 1.1 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Donald Trump 44.0% 46.9% -2.9 percentage points
Joe Biden 51.0% 51.3% -0.3 percentage points
Jo Jorgensen 1.0% 1.2% -0.2 percentage points
Echelon Insights 2020-10-20 14 3 1.5 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Donald Trump 44.0% 46.9% -2.9 percentage points
Joe Biden 50.0% 51.3% -1.3 percentage points
Jo Jorgensen 1.0% 1.2% -0.2 percentage points
Suffolk University 2020-10-27 7 3 1.8 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Donald Trump 43.0% 46.9% -3.9 percentage points
Joe Biden 50.0% 51.3% -1.3 percentage points
Jo Jorgensen 1.0% 1.2% -0.2 percentage points
Data for Progress 2020-10-29 5 3 1.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Donald Trump 44.0% 46.9% -2.9 percentage points
Joe Biden 54.0% 51.3% +2.7 percentage points
Jo Jorgensen 1.0% 1.2% -0.2 percentage points
Change Research 2020-11-01 2 3 2.1 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Donald Trump 42.0% 46.9% -4.9 percentage points
Jo Jorgensen 2.0% 1.2% +0.8 percentage points
Joe Biden 52.0% 51.3% +0.7 percentage points
Research Co. 2020-11-02 1 3 2.1 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Donald Trump 42.0% 46.9% -4.9 percentage points
Joe Biden 50.0% 51.3% -1.3 percentage points
Jo Jorgensen 1.0% 1.2% -0.2 percentage points
Leger 2020-11-01 2 3 2.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Donald Trump 42.0% 46.9% -4.9 percentage points
Joe Biden 50.0% 51.3% -1.3 percentage points
Jo Jorgensen 2.0% 1.2% +0.8 percentage points
Qriously 2020-11-01 2 3 2.5 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Donald Trump 41.0% 46.9% -5.9 percentage points
Jo Jorgensen 2.0% 1.2% +0.8 percentage points
Joe Biden 52.0% 51.3% +0.7 percentage points
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 2020-11-01 2 3 2.6 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Donald Trump 41.0% 46.9% -5.9 percentage points
Joe Biden 53.0% 51.3% +1.7 percentage points
Jo Jorgensen 1.0% 1.2% -0.2 percentage points
Siena College 2020-10-18 16 3 2.7 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Donald Trump 41.0% 46.9% -5.9 percentage points
Joe Biden 50.0% 51.3% -1.3 percentage points
Jo Jorgensen 2.0% 1.2% +0.8 percentage points
ABC News Poll 2020-10-09 25 3 2.8 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Donald Trump 42.0% 46.9% -4.9 percentage points
Joe Biden 54.0% 51.3% +2.7 percentage points
Jo Jorgensen 2.0% 1.2% +0.8 percentage points
Pew Research Center 2020-10-05 29 3 2.8 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Donald Trump 42.0% 46.9% -4.9 percentage points
Jo Jorgensen 4.0% 1.2% +2.8 percentage points
Joe Biden 52.0% 51.3% +0.7 percentage points
John Zogby Strategies 2020-11-01 2 3 3.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Donald Trump 43.0% 46.9% -3.9 percentage points
Joe Biden 48.0% 51.3% -3.3 percentage points
Jo Jorgensen 4.0% 1.2% +2.8 percentage points

How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.