Latest poll: ActiVote, 4 days ago · 28 days until the election

House election 2024

Held on 2024-11-05. The result below is the official outcome; underneath it, where we hold the polls, is how close each pollster’s final poll came.

Result

Party Share (%)
Republican Party 49.8%
Democratic Party 47.2%

How the final polls compared

Each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before this election, and how far it was from the result. Only parties the pollster reported are counted.

Pollster Final poll Days before Parties scored Difference
SSRS 2024-10-23 13 2 0.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 48.4% 48.7% -0.3 percentage points
Republican Party 51.6% 51.3% +0.3 percentage points
J.L. Partners 2024-10-29 7 2 0.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 48.3% 48.7% -0.3 percentage points
Republican Party 51.7% 51.3% +0.3 percentage points
Kaplan Strategies 2024-10-31 5 2 0.8 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 49.4% 48.7% +0.8 percentage points
Republican Party 50.6% 51.3% -0.8 percentage points
Fabrizio Lee/GBAO 2024-10-22 14 2 0.8 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 47.9% 48.7% -0.8 percentage points
Republican Party 52.1% 51.3% +0.8 percentage points
co/efficient 2024-10-08 28 2 0.8 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 49.5% 48.7% +0.8 percentage points
Republican Party 50.5% 51.3% -0.8 percentage points
Noble Predictive Insights 2024-10-27 9 2 0.8 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 49.5% 48.7% +0.8 percentage points
Republican Party 50.5% 51.3% -0.8 percentage points
Echelon Insights 2024-10-31 5 2 0.8 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 49.5% 48.7% +0.8 percentage points
Republican Party 50.5% 51.3% -0.8 percentage points
Cygnal 2024-10-26 10 2 1.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 49.9% 48.7% +1.3 percentage points
Republican Party 50.1% 51.3% -1.3 percentage points
Florida Atlantic University 2024-10-27 9 2 1.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 50.0% 48.7% +1.3 percentage points
Republican Party 50.0% 51.3% -1.3 percentage points
HarrisX 2024-11-02 3 2 1.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 50.0% 48.7% +1.3 percentage points
Republican Party 50.0% 51.3% -1.3 percentage points
Siena College 2024-10-23 13 2 1.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 50.0% 48.7% +1.3 percentage points
Republican Party 50.0% 51.3% -1.3 percentage points
Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies 2024-11-02 3 2 1.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 50.5% 48.7% +1.9 percentage points
Republican Party 49.5% 51.3% -1.9 percentage points
Paradigm 2024-10-22 14 2 1.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 50.6% 48.7% +1.9 percentage points
Republican Party 49.4% 51.3% -1.9 percentage points
Emerson College 2024-11-02 3 2 1.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 50.6% 48.7% +1.9 percentage points
Republican Party 49.4% 51.3% -1.9 percentage points
Suffolk University 2024-10-18 18 2 2.0 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 50.7% 48.7% +2.0 percentage points
Republican Party 49.3% 51.3% -2.0 percentage points
John Zogby Strategies 2024-11-03 2 2 2.1 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 50.8% 48.7% +2.1 percentage points
Republican Party 49.2% 51.3% -2.1 percentage points
Marquette University Law School Poll 2024-10-10 26 2 2.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 51.0% 48.7% +2.3 percentage points
Republican Party 49.0% 51.3% -2.3 percentage points
Marist College 2024-11-02 3 2 2.4 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 51.0% 48.7% +2.4 percentage points
Republican Party 49.0% 51.3% -2.4 percentage points
American Pulse Research & Polling 2024-10-30 6 2 2.4 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 51.1% 48.7% +2.4 percentage points
Republican Party 48.9% 51.3% -2.4 percentage points
Monmouth University 2024-10-21 15 2 2.4 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 51.1% 48.7% +2.4 percentage points
Republican Party 48.9% 51.3% -2.4 percentage points
YouGov 2024-10-31 5 2 3.0 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 51.6% 48.7% +3.0 percentage points
Republican Party 48.4% 51.3% -3.0 percentage points
Targoz Market Research 2024-11-01 4 2 3.0 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 51.6% 48.7% +3.0 percentage points
Republican Party 48.4% 51.3% -3.0 percentage points
Clarity Campaign Labs 2024-10-23 13 2 3.1 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Democratic Party 51.7% 48.7% +3.1 percentage points
Republican Party 48.3% 51.3% -3.1 percentage points

How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error. For the generic congressional ballot, polls and results are both compared as two-party shares: each party’s share of the combined Democratic and Republican total. Undecided and third-party respondents therefore do not count as polling error, and the result figures in these comparisons are two-party shares too, not the raw popular vote.